The impact of the Sino US trade war on the major industries in China
The sword refers to "made in China 2025"
The US trade representative office said that the tariff list involves 1300 products, including products such as aviation products, modern railways, new energy vehicles, information technology, machinery and high-tech products.
Do you understand the intention of the trade war in terms of information technology and machinery?
US trade representative lett Hill said in the US Senate Finance Committee the question of which products should be imposed: "the products included in the China made 2025" plan, which they say will be self-sufficient in 2 to 3 years and dominate the world. If China gets that position, then this is the United States The country is very bad. "
According to the Chinese content of "made in China 2025", Wall Street's knowledge and understanding will be summarized as follows:
The new generation of information technology, automatic implementation of high-end CNC machine tools and industrial robots, aeronautics and Astronautics, marine engineering equipment, high-tech ships, new energy equipment, high speed rail equipment, agricultural machinery equipment, new materials, biomedicine and high-performance medical equipment.
Lettash's above statement is not surprising. Wall Street news this week quoted media news that in a dialogue with the US Congress, the US Trade Representative Office stressed that the US government action would "minimize the impact on consumers and to the greatest extent impact China." The goal of the White House is to destroy the "made in China 2025" plan.
Martin Feldstein, a professor of economics at the Harvard University at the end of the weekend, said that the focus of the trade war in the United States is not on the steel aluminum products protected by the effective tariffs this month. The United States feels the biggest threat to China is "stealing" American technology, and the ultimate goal of trade war is China.
Therefore, Trump's trade bar is aimed at not only the total value of 60 billion dollars, but also the strategy of "China made 2025".
This plan is considered to be China's newest power plan and a key step for China to realize the rise of great powers.
Next, we will comb the impact of this trade friction on China's major industries.
One's one
Who is free in the domestic industry? Who is good?
From China's point of view, once the Sino US trade war appears, it will inevitably bring a direct negative impact on China's economic growth and labor market stability in the short term. In 2016, China's exports to the United States accounted for 18% of China's total exports and 4.4% of GDP.
The export of American goods is not only concentrated in the traditional labor intensive industries, such as toys, furniture and textile exports to the United States, which account for about 1/3 of all the exports of the industry, and with the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, capital intensive industries such as electronic machinery, such as electronic machinery, have also greatly increased their exports to the United States, and the export volume overtakes labor intensive industries. .
In addition, what other industries will be affected?
[1] financial industry: A shares pressure relief good
In direct investment, the direct investment of the United States to China in the past ten years accounted for 3.3% of China's total FDI. In the ten years, the total employment of American enterprises in China was over 1 million. The proportion of the other major exporters in the main export commodities of China was quite high, and the space for further increasing the proportion of export and market share was extremely limited. It is estimated that it is difficult to find alternative markets in the US market.
Ping An Securities believes that the escalation of Sino US trade war will also bring volatility to China's financial market.
Compared to the market capitalization of the A shares, which have been affected by the trade war, we can find that the market capitalization of the chemicals (including plastic rubber), machinery, non-ferrous and non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment, household appliances, steel and textile and clothing (including footwear and leather products) account for more than 1% of the market capitalization of the plate, and the market value of the furniture plate is 0.5%. The total market value is 21.1%.
If the market value is used to measure the impact coefficient of the plate on the whole market, the United States opens a trade war in the fields of chemical (plastic, rubber), mechanical, non-ferrous and non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment, electrical appliances, steel and textile and clothing (including footwear and leather products). The stock market has a significant impact.
Guangzhou Bandung believes that in the short term, it is more likely that the index will weaken under pressure. If there is a large scale of panic dive, then the unicorn concept stock will also have a strong fall, so the investors who are involved in the concept of speculation should keep one more heart. But do not eat this cake game of other subjects of the investors do not rush to copy the bottom, even more at a time to fill the position, temporarily to control the position and risk prevention.
But at the same time, the decline in risk preference is good for hedge products such as gold and bond markets. As of 11 yesterday, London gold rose nearly 10.7 dollars compared with the opening.
[2] Agriculture: benefiting from China's anti system action
China intends to levy a tariff list on US imports, tentatively including 7 categories and 128 tax products. According to the 2017 statistics, it involves US $3 billion export to China.
The first part of the total 120 taxes, involving US $977 million US exports to China, including fresh fruit, dried fruit and nut products, wine, modified ethanol, ginseng, seamless steel pipe and other products, will be added to the tariff of 15%.
The second part of the total 8 taxes, involving US $1 billion 992 million export to China, including pork and products, aluminum recovery and other products, to levy a 25% tariff.
The substantial increase in the tariffs on pork products has not only raised the stock concept plate of the stock market, but also been a good news for the pig farming enterprises. In addition, some fruit growers will also benefit from tariff increases.
[3] furniture industry: output size or decline 15%
Furniture, electronic products, textile and clothing, leather products and electrical equipment manufacturing, the gross profit margin of these industries is almost all below 45%.
Therefore, if the United States imposed a 45% tariff, the export to the United States would be mostly or even stopped. The furniture industry suffered the most serious impact, the output scale decreased by 15%, and the output of the other three industries also dropped by more than 5%.
[4] high and new industry: will be subjected to a certain impact
China also has certain dependence on the US in technology import and financing. For example, China's import of a lot of high-tech products, the key technology is only the United States, once the United States to stop such core technology exports to China, may have a impact on China's industrial supply chain. For example, Intel and AMD are very popular in the use of personal computer CPU, and the vast majority of Chinese mobile phones also install GPS global positioning systems. Once a trade war breaks out, China will take a certain time to find a substitute for such technology.
The reasons behind the trade war are that there are both Trump's political appeal and the purpose of restricting the development of China's high and new technology industry, and the related industries will be affected.
In February 28th this year, the Trump Administration issued the 2018 trade policy outline and 2017 annual report, which said, "to ensure that the United States is in the leading position in research and technology to protect the US economy from unfair access to our intellectual property rivals. In this regard, the United States (China) launched 301 investigations to prevent China from acquiring technology and intellectual property rights through unreasonable and discriminatory measures.
The competition for intellectual property rights is most seriously affected by technology intensive industries. And the news of Robert lettash of the US Senate Finance Committee has confirmed this, and it refers to the tariffs that include aviation, modern railways, new energy vehicles, and high-tech products.
In recent years, China's high and new technology has developed further, and is in an advantageous position in the fields of high voltage transmission, high speed rail, alternative energy vehicles and supercomputing. However, as far as China's high-tech industry is concerned, a broad overseas market is needed at the present stage. If the trade war between China and the United States is further fermented, China's high-tech industry will be affected and affected.
The latter
The upheavals facing domestic enterprises
The turmoil in the industry will also affect many domestic enterprises, especially those with close economic ties with the United States.
According to the "double counter" survey carried out by the United States, the United States and China's trade war, in addition to the fierce competition in the steel industry, and the electronic equipment industry and mechanical and electrical industry, and China's electronic products not only ranked second in the proportion of export products, but also the highest sensitivity to the policy of export to the United States, so this trade The start of the war is likely to bring great turbulence to China's famous electronics companies.
[1] iron and steel enterprises
Shanghai Baoshan Iron and Steel Group, Shougang, Anshan iron and steel, Wuhan iron and steel and other well-known state-owned enterprises and listed companies.
In March 21st, China's iron and steel enterprises responded to the 337 United States investigation (the United States International Trade Commission, according to the relevant provisions of the 337th section of the 1930 customs tax law of the United States, to investigate the infringement of intellectual property rights in import trade and other unfair competition actions, and decide whether it is tortious and whether it is necessary to take relief measures. " A quasi judicial procedure) won all the victory, avoiding a major crisis in the steel industry in China, but at the same time, the accompanying trade war again brought the steel industry into a complex situation.
[2] chemical enterprise
China Petroleum and chemical industry group, China Petroleum and natural gas group, China marine petroleum, China sinochemical, Wanda holdings, Shanghai Huayi, Rongsheng petrochemical and other well-known state-owned enterprises and listed companies.
Chemical enterprises and iron and steel enterprises are often mentioned at the same time, and in this Sino US trade war is no exception. However, compared with the steel industry, chemical enterprises are slightly damaged, and the sensitivity of policies to the export industry is also less than that of the electronics industry.
[3] paper products enterprise
Chenming paper industry, Fujian Heng An paper industry, Guangzhou Vinda paper industry, Guangdong Zhong Shun paper industry and so on.
The price of paper products in China is obvious to all the consumers, and the famous brands such as "Qingfeng", "heart phase seal", "Vinda", "Jie soft" and so on are out of a few well-known enterprises. Exports of paper products are relatively unfavourable relative to exports of textiles and agricultural products. However, due to the low sensitivity of the industry, the negative impact of paper products is limited. Major paper products enterprises need to adjust policies or need to transform to cope with difficulties.
[4] garment enterprise
YOUNGOR group Limited by Share Ltd, Hong Kong Group Co., Ltd., Hai Lan group and Shanshan Group Co., Ltd.
Garment industry occupies a relatively high proportion in China's export industry, but in the Sino US trade game, it has attracted much attention due to the high sensitivity of the industry, and its export prospects are more severe.
China's trade war is not entirely negative. To some extent, we can turn this bad thing into something good. For a long time, China's exports to the United States are mostly labor-intensive products and low value-added products. Because of the relationship between labor costs, such products are likely to have an impact on similar companies in the United States. Chinese enterprises can take this opportunity to improve the value of knowledge and the content of science and technology through technological upgrading and transformation, making the competitiveness of the enterprises no longer only on the price, which is not a good thing for the long-term development of Chinese enterprises.
[5] military industry enterprise
China nuclear industry, China nuclear construction, aerospace science and technology, aerospace science and technology, China shipbuilding industry, Zhonghai heavy industry, China Electronics and so on are basically the ten largest military enterprises in China.
The benefit of trade war to military enterprises is to some extent based on the pessimistic forecast of trade game or diplomatic relations, but it is undeniable that the escalation of trade conflicts will bring business opportunities to military enterprises.
[6] new energy enterprise
Wuxi Suntech Electric Holdings Limited, BYD automotive Limited by Share Ltd, Huarui wind power technology (Group) Limited by Share Ltd, etc.
The optimistic situation of new energy is like an optimistic forecast of "intelligent upgrading" inspired by trade war pressure. New energy involves a wide range of industries, such as photovoltaic industry, wind power industry, solar energy industry, solar battery and battery charger nuclear energy industry and so on.
Wednesday
How will China deal with it?
Some experts say that China may target the target of counterattack on the larger American exports to China, such as soybeans, and may also impose tariffs on imports of high-tech products such as cars and aircraft from the United States. In fact, the Ministry of Commerce of China has taken action. In March 22nd, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice to continue to levy anti-dumping duties on imports of photographic paper from the European Union, the United States and Japan.
What do experts and businessmen think at this time?
[1] Guan Qing friends (Famous Economist):
President Trump and the US government launched a trade war against many countries. This is just the beginning, not the end. After the financial crisis in 2008, the United States had similar behaviors to China. That was a case, and it was a tactical behavior. This time is a systematic strategic act.
China's "containment" has been attempted since the end of 90s. Unfortunately, it was "aborted" because of the global counter terrorism triggered by the 911 incident in 2001. When China joined the WTO, the United States did not expect China to become the "world factory" and then become the biggest winner of globalization. Globalization will be reversed, which depends on whom it is. Twenty years ago, the prophecy came true ten years ago.
China has become the world's second largest economy, and the strategic urgency of "containment" of China has been unprecedentedly strengthened. President Trump is nothing but a move. Even if Hilary comes to power, the strategy will not change or even intensify. We should have a clear understanding of this.
Let us worry about the coming of the new Cold War era.
First, the world has entered a new era. The powerful men came on stage in succession. The United States, Russia, Germany, Britain, Japan and so on, some of them were in power continuously, some of them were hawks. A powerful person is characterized by his talent and talent and not playing cards according to common sense. You can't follow your general model of politicians. The trade war triggered a comprehensive international struggle, which was already clear in World War I and World War II.
Second, long-term loosing has caused global differentiation. Loose monetary policy after the financial crisis is turning to structural reform. However, it is hard to see hope in some countries' internal reform, and the domestic society is torn badly. If you do not make a cake, you must go out to grab a cake.
Again, from the trade war to the ideological war. The root cause of the last cold war was ideology, which evolved into the competition of two social systems. This time, it is not known whether the trade war will be turned into ideological war. If it is, it will be out of hand.
[2] Zhao Guodong (global macro investor):
This is a huge event, and it can be said that the Sino US trade war has started. The world's two largest economy is fighting at half past one.
Restricting the investment and merger and acquisition of Chinese enterprises is a way to break the Chinese market for technology. Other industries do not know, at least China's big data industry, in general, still seems to be, China's application is in full swing, but technology innovation is indeed a better American company. The win-win outcome is naturally Chinese companies going to Silicon Valley to acquire small technology companies. These small technology companies are also happy to open up China's market. Trump looked like the iron heart would cut the road.
Fortunately, China has just set up the National Immigration administration. Now that the investment and acquisition business is not enough, we should start robbing people. Beijing has just introduced the management method of introducing talents. It seems that it is not only Robbing Chinese people, but also the cattle and cattle in Silicon Valley. The immigration authority has done something.
The increase in tariffs is not 45% of Trump's asking price before, but 25%. That's enough. Trump's hand really forced China's industrial transformation and forced China to experience Africa. Fortunately, China on supply side structural reform, foreign The Belt and Road strategy are less dependent on the American winner. It should be said that preparations were made, but after all, they were on the road. Moreover, the Chinese party, government and military organizations are facing major adjustments. Trump's juncture is indeed unpleasant.
But China has always been a dialectic. Trump's tough move is actually accelerating China's current progress. Just as the beginning of the founding of the people's Republic of China, the United States, like the Korean War on China's head, accelerated the operation of China, took the Korean War as the center, and quickly completed the integration of domestic and international forces. The price is that all sectors must tighten their belts and spend a lot of time. I think it's no exception this time.
At least, Trump's move has made us understand a reason. You can't count on the US. Don't be greedy for American technology. In terms of institutional innovation, we have made greater strides. In technological innovation, we can use our own resources. With more open measures and a more inclusive mindset, people from all over the world will win.
[3] Xiong Peng (global macro investor):
For global risk preference, the so-called war must be at least two sides, and if we don't see the other party's strong fish death retaliation, it's not a war. Since there is no war, there will be concession and consultation. As I have repeatedly stressed, steel aluminum is just to distinguish between friends and enemies. Now Trump government decision based on:
1, the victory that North Korea imagines brings them good feeling and feels that this method will be effective.
2, they did a lot of research on China, made some preparations, and prepared bargaining chips. The first step may be the export of natural gas to China.
3, what is more difficult to predict is how to fight back in China? This morning the Ministry of commerce is just a symbolic gesture; if you stick to this attitude, then there's a lot of work to negotiate. But now the negotiating partners will be very, very serious. The tactics that were previously fooled and procrastinate were no longer effective.
4, the mark of the end of market shock is likely to be a way of reconciliation. But this is unlikely. Now, it is more likely that time will be used to digest fully, but this is the worst way to deal with it, which means that it has been in a range of shocks for a long time. Finally, the market will realize that all of this is not so bad.
5, the impact on China's economy. It is very difficult to assess, good and good. If I want to say, I'll say 50:50.
6. The impact on the American economy. The influence is not big.
The trade disputes between China and the United States can not be avoided.
[4] Cao Dewang (Chairman Fuyao Glass):
Cao Dewang said recently in the company's performance conference that the balance of trade between the two countries came from domestic demand in the United States but they did not produce, so the Chinese goods would be bought, the United States was not in relief China, "the US imposed tariffs, no matter how much, 20% is not 40%, 50% I also support, but I have a bottom line, that is not make a profit." I don't do the money. As long as there is still demand in the US, raising taxes is not the way to solve the problem.